我国粮食主产区农业生产要素投入的产出效应分析
摘要：【目的】對我国粮食主产区农业生产要素投入产出效应进行分析，为改善和优化粮食主产区的粮食生产投入要素配置提供参考。【方法】基于粮食主产区与省域角度，采用1997～2013年粮食生产数据，构建基于农业投入要素的粮食产量模型；利用面板数据及时间序列数据模型研究净播种面积、劳动力投入、机械总动力、化肥施用量、电力使用量、农药使用量及农用薄膜使用量等农业投入要素对粮食主产区及各省域粮食产量的影响。【结果】从粮食主产区来看，净播种面积是影响粮食产量增长最主要的因素；化肥投入是促使粮食产量增长的一个极其重要的因素；与净播种面积、化肥施用量的贡献相比，劳动力投入、机械总动力、电力使用量、农药使用量及农用薄膜使用量对粮食主产区粮食产量增长的效果均不显著。从粮食主产区省域内各农业生产要素投入对粮食产出贡献效应来看，总体上净播种面积对粮食产出的贡献效应仍然最大，其次是化肥，其他农业生产要素贡献效应不明显。【建议】应稳定粮食净播种面积、加快农村剩余劳动力转移、提高农业机械使用效率、合理控制化肥和农药施用量、完善粮食生产用电条件、提高农膜使用和管理水平，以确保我国粮食主产区粮食产量持续稳定增长。
关键词： 粮食产量；投入要素；效应；建议；粮食主产区
中图分类号： F304.7 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-1191（2016）01-0153-06
Analysis on output effect of agricultural production factor inputs in the main grain producing areas of China
LI Rui
（Economy & Trade Institute， Zhongzhou University， Zhengzhou 450044， China）
Abstract：【Objective】The output effects of agricultural production factors inputs in the main grain producing areas of China was analyzed， in order to provide reference for improving and optimizing allocation of grain production input factors in major grain producing areas. 【Method】From the perspective of main grain producing areas and provincial areas， the grain yield model based on agricultural input factors was constructed according to annual grain production data during 1997-2013. Furthermore， the effects of agricultural input factors viz.， net sown area， labor input， total mechanical power， chemical fertilizer application rate， application amounts of electric power， pesticides and agricultural film on grain yield of main grain producing areas and provinces were analyzed based on panel data and time series data. 【Result】From the point of main grain producing areas， the net sown area was the most important factor affecting grain output growth； fertilizer input was a important factor increasing grain output. And compared with contribution of net sown area and chemical fertilizer application rate， the labor input， total mechanical power， application amounts of electric power， pesticides and agricultural film had non-significant effects on growth of grain output in the main grain producing areas. From the point of contribution of all agricultural production factors input to grain output in the main grain producing areas， on the whole， the net sown area had the largest contribution to grain output， followed by chemical fertilizer application， but other agricultural production factors had non-significant contribution to grain output. 【Suggestion】In order to ensure sustained and stable growth of grain output in the main grain producing areas of china， some suggestion should be put forward， which included stabilizing net sown area of grain， accelerating rural surplus labor transfer， improving use efficiency of agricultural machinery， controlling reasonably application amounts of chemical fertilizer and pesticide， improving conditions of electric power utilization in grain production， and enhancing usage and management levels of agricultural film.